Advances in earthquake preparedness

Recent earthquakes and tsunamis in Haiti, Indonesia and Japan killed over half a million people, highlighting the need for better seismic hazard detection. In particular, potential earthquakes around the Marmara Sea threaten social and economic development in one of the most densely populated parts of Europe.

As such, this area is the focus of the MARSITE project. It aims to prepare regions for geological disasters at a European level by coordinating research by seismologists, engineers and gas geochemists.

So far, scientists have painted a more accurate picture of the area's seismic risk by mapping active faults and analysing historical earthquake data. The team built long-term disaster management systems to continuously monitor potential earthquakes, tsunamis, landslides and chemical–radioactive emissions by harmonising land, sea and space-based observation stations.

MARSITE created a scenario database for earthquake-triggered tsunamis to advance early warning and rapid response systems for the Marmara area and the city of Istanbul. Researchers calculated risk probabilities for the next 5-, 10- and 50-year periods, and developed a 3D model to simulate ground motions for possible earthquake scenarios.

This ongoing research will help decision makers develop disaster mitigation policies in the high-risk Marmara region and improve the community's emergency response through public awareness. As these findings are applicable to other earthquake-prone areas, it will also advance global early warning detection systems.