Power generation from a renewable resource like wind directly depends on the weather, which cannot be easily predicted. An EU initiative improved wind power and electricity demand forecasting in order to make wind power more valuable on the power market.
The political priority of a European Energy Union implies the increase
of renewable and particularly wind power. It also creates a competitive
market to buy and sell electricity. Energy market participants need an
accurate picture of their future electricity demand and price to make
the right decisions concerning energy sales and purchases. Bad forecasts
lead to excess market costs.
The EU-funded METEORES SERVICES
(Turning wind energy meteorology into system integration services for energy market participants) project set out to develop integrated forecasting methods with greater prediction and accuracy capacities for wind power production and electric demand.
For wind power forecasting, project partners implemented advanced algorithms to enhance the statistical correction of prediction models and created an online application to gather wind farm availability planning from maintenance teams and then integrate it into the forecasting system. By using numerical weather prediction methods, they measured and lowered the uncertainty involved in forecasts. A basic and advanced wind power forecast system was designed and tested.
The team adapted current load forecasting methods to accommodate smaller and more segmented consumption sectors, and established a load forecasting service and incorporated it in wind power forecasting tools. The various methods were applied to real-world case studies, and their market benefits and commercial exploitation were assessed. An application tool was developed that integrates the methods into a technology platform. In addition, a demand control inventory was set up.
METEORES SERVICES enhanced wind power forecasts by developing services that integrate various existing methods. In doing so, it will ultimately boost the efficiency of Europe's internal market for electricity that is focused on wind power.