Modelling the relationship between climate and ecosystems

The aim of the SMSEE (Stochastic modeling of spatially extended ecosystems and ecological and climate data analysis) project therefore is to provide a better understanding of how changes to ecosystems occur. The initiative will use non-linear, stochastic modelling to study the relationship between climate and ecosystems.

SMSEE combines methods taken from physics, non-linear dynamics and game theory to investigate the various effects of ꞌnoiseꞌ on climate and ecosystem dynamics. It attempts to fill in the knowledge gaps in several fields including, climate dynamics and the dynamics of spatially extended ecosystems.

Learning algorithms were used to give significantly improved predictions of the climate in the future, together with a major reduction in the level of uncertainty. In addition, the team developed a theory for the relationship between wind statistics and the statistics of ocean open currents.

Researchers also introduced a new concept in the field of ecosystem regime shifts. These are abrupt global transitions from one stable state to another and are caused by slow environmental changes or by global disturbances.

SMSEE proposed indicators for investigating gradual regime shifts, suggesting that a combination of abrupt-shift and gradual-shift indicators may be needed to accurately identify them. The results are particularly relevant to desertification, where transition to bare soil appears to involve step-like loss of local vegetation through repeated droughts.

Project results will help to improve understanding of climate and ecosystem dynamics. It will also advance research in fundamental physics, such as the relationship between complex non-linear dynamics and stochastic effects.